What is going wrong in NL?
12 Nov, 14 tweets, 8 min read
1/ What is wrong in NL?
so many lockdowns
so many test for entry
so many school closures
so mutch fear
masking 1.5 years
teleworking 1.5 years
months of curfew
police beating demonstrators
and now this ??
Bottom figures: panic why?
2/ NL will now punish the unvaxxed with 2G to protect them.
Those are mainly below 35 years. The healthy young people who are the future of NL. Do you see how they need to be protected?
3/ The young and children need to "urgently" be vaccinated, although this data should make you wonder why.
4/ But NL has been rewarded for all the measures, or not?
I fail to see it. I don't read news nor watch TV. I read data. That's my destiny as scientist. I fail to understand what people are thinking around me.
5/ But SWE must have failed totally?
Without lockdowns, everything should have collapsed. 10x deaths forecast!
I fail to see it. NL is worse.
2020 SWE (left) versus 2020 NL (right). Age adjusted mortality rate by age group.
6/ NL: It was the worst pandemic since 100 years. We needed to lock down the children and the healthy to protect them. Is this plausible?
I fail to see it.
Unroll available on Thread Reader
7/ But Sweden killed people. Their neighbours did much better. No they did not.
The neighbours like DNK need to ask themselves: why do they have 2-3 years lower life expectancy on average compared with Sweden?
8/ But Finland. See above. Finland has a 2 years worse life expectancy. One needs to have people in the elderly bin in order to make the all age excess possible with the Simpson's illusion (btw. the reason for most Covid panic). Even worse illusions are possible by using z-scores (a non linear metric) to compare countries.
9/ More on Finland:
The Finland challenge. Why didn't they lockdown 2016, 2017 and 2019. What did Finland do wrong? Nothing. It's an irrelevant excess and the way nature works in northern latitudes. It's the pipeline effect. At some point old people die.
10/ About z-scores
What is z-score? Does it have a unit? And any real meaning? Is z-score of e.g. 5 in country A the same as z-score of 5 in country B. Same of time t1 and time t2. The same? Can z-scores be added? No.
Z-score: it cannot be aggregated as it's a highly nonlinear operation creating an exponential parameter: sigma. 3 + 3 sigma does not equal 6 sigma. 6 sigma is orders of magnitudes worse.
11/ But let's also look to the "holy land" of this new lockdown religion. USA. They must have done better?
No, Sweden outperformed. Without radical measures. No masking. Not blaming children. Not depriving them from school. Not masking of children.
12/ But Portugal did the MOST stick measures, are 98% vaxxed, and finally did better was a remark.
No. Strickt measures are not healthy. Yes, it's quiet in Portugal (and SWE). But PR it's not really famous for strong respiratory seasons or is it? All coastal climate.
Lisbon (38° 44'N) : 16 °C avg T
Stockholm (59° 20'N): 4 °C avg T
14/ Could this be an issue in NL?
left: NL population increase since 1970 in the 75+ group: 300%
right: ICU capacity NL since 1970: -50%
Could it be a problem? @hugodejonge